Daily Rate Lock Advisory

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Medium

Positive

Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) from the Conference Board

Unlike many Mondays, there was a piece of relevant economic data released this morning. June's Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) report was posted at 10:00 AM ET. The Conference Board, who is a New York-based business research group and not a governmental agency, announced a 0.3% decline in the indicators. Analysts were expecting to see a 0.2% drop, meaning the indicators are predicting a larger slowdown in economic activity over the next few months than previously thought. Accordingly, we can label the report good news for bonds and mortgage rates.

Medium

Unknown

None

The rest of the week has only three more monthly economic reports scheduled. There also is a Treasury auction that may come into play during afternoon trading one day and a slew of corporate earnings releases scheduled that can affect stock trading. Due to the lack of influential economic reports or other events that carry a high level of significance in the markets, we are expecting mortgage rates to be a little calmer this week than last. Unexpected tariff or other geopolitical headlines could obviously change that, but on paper it looks to be a relatively uneventful week.

Low

Unknown

Fed Talk

Tomorrow is the only day without a piece of data set for release. There are two Fed speeches listed tomorrow, one being opening remarks at a banking conference in Washington D.C. by Chairman Powell at 8:30 AM ET and another by Vice Chair Bowman at the same conference at 1:00 PM ET. Due to the Fed’s quiet period ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting, it is a safe assumption that we will not hear anything from them regarding the economy or monetary policy. In other words, it is highly likely that these will have no impact on mortgage pricing.

High

Unknown

Durable Goods Orders

Overall, Friday is the best candidate for most active day for mortgage rates because the Durable Goods Orders report is the most important economic release of the week, while tomorrow is likely to be the calmest. No day is expected to bring a large move in pricing though. We will probably see minor moves each day this week unless something unexpected happens. Corporate earnings season is gaining momentum with a large number of companies posting results this week. Generally speaking, good news for stocks is bad news for bonds and mortgage rates. Despite the lack of key or highly influential events to drive trading, it would still be prudent to keep an eye on the markets if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future since they can get active without notice.

Rate Lock Advisory

Mortgage Rate Trend

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) from the Conference Board

None

Fed Talk

Durable Goods Orders

Float / Lock Recommendation